
尽管面临运营和市场挑战,领先的海上钻井承包商Shelf Drilling仍在2024年第一季度表现强劲。该公司展示了其36台钻机的总可记录事故率为0.06,正常运行时间为99.5%。
然而,与沙特阿美公司(TADAWUL:2222)签订合同的四个钻井平台的暂停以及涉及Trident VIII的操作事故是关键问题。尽管遇到了这些挫折,Shelf Drilling仍对自己获得新合同的能力充满信心,并保持积极的前景。该公司本季度调整后的收入为2.52亿美元,调整后的EBITDA为8000万美元,利润率为32%。
整个Shelf Drilling公司的总可记录事故率为0.06,正常运行时间为99.5%。
四个钻机与沙特阿美签订的合同被暂停,影响了短期财务业绩。
积极讨论新公司三个暂停钻井平台的合同,预计开工日期在2024年底之前。
三叉戟VIII钻井平台受损,0正在进行修复计划的谈判。
Shelf Drilling Barsk正在等待其新公司的最终批准与挪威国家石油公司签订合同。
2024年第一季度调整后的收入为2.52亿美元,调整后的EBITDA为8000万美元。
有限公司截至2024年3月31日,合同积压额为22亿美元,加权平均日费率为84,000美元。
新公司预计开始工作的日期在2024年底之前签订了三个暂停钻井平台的合同。
中东地区的活动预计会减少,而西非和东南亚地区的需求预计会增加。
北海市场加强,市场利用率提高。
Shelf Drilling修订了2024年全年财务指引,预计EBITDA将在第四季度恢复到第一季度的水平。
沙特阿拉伯四个钻井平台的暂停将在短期内影响财务业绩。
Trident VIII钻井平台可能会面临一段很长的停机维修期。
公司的不延期L1投标人的合同导致ONGC取消了高压、高温招标。
该公司正积极在其他地区销售暂停的钻井平台,并预计将继续销售尽快把它们收起来。
大陆架钻探对获得新合同充满信心收缩和改善前景。
由于其独特的能力,预计阿美石油公司将对High Island V平台进行更新。
第一季度调整后的EBITDA利润率从上一季度的37%降至32%。
由于更高的维护成本和车队备件,运营和维护费用增加。
David Mullen(纳斯达克股票代码:MULN)强调了公司在获得合同方面的竞争优势,特别是在尼日利亚等具有挑战性的地区。
该公司仍在运营。对自己赢得胜利的能力充满信心理性地收缩可选日费率水平。
除非石油市场发生重大变化,否则预计沙特阿美不会进一步停牌。
在运营挑战和市场动态中,Shelf Drilling(股票代码:SHLF)在2024年第一季度表现出了弹性。该公司积极主动地为其暂停的钻井平台争取新合同,并保持强劲的合同积压,这表明该公司的战略重点是长期稳定和增长。凭借对安全性、正常运行时间和作业效率的承诺,Shelf Drilling继续在海上钻井行业的复杂性中前行。
接线员:您好,谢谢您随时待命。欢迎参加Shelf Drilling 2024年第一季度财报电话会议。此时,所有参与者都处于只听模式。演讲结束后,将有问答环节。[接线员说明]请注意,本次会议正在录音中。现在我想把会议交给今天的演讲者,大卫·马伦。请继续。
David Mullen: Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Shelf Drilling quarter one 2024 Earnings Call. Joining me on the call today is Greg O’Brien, Shell (LON:SHEL) Drilling’s CFO. Earlier today, we published our Q1 2024 Financial Statements for Shelf Drilling Limited and Shelf Drilling North Sea Limited (NYSE:SE), as well as our latest Fleet Status Report on the Investor Relations page of our company website. In addition to our press release and the financial statements, we also published a presentation with highlights from the quarter. A recording of this call will be made available on our website within the next few days. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that our call will contain forward-looking statements. Except for statements of historical facts, all statements that address our outlook for the full-year 2024 and beyond, activities, events or developments that we expect, estimate, project, believe or anticipate may or will occur in the future are forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve substantial risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect expected results. Actual future results could differ materially from those described in such statements. Also note that we may use non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. If we do, you will find supplemental disclosure for these measures on an associated reconciliation in our financial reports. I will provide an overview of our company’s performance for Q1 2024 before sharing my latest views on the jack-up market. I will then hand over to Greg for his remarks and walk you through our first quarter results and our updated guidance before opening the floor to Q&A. As always, I would like to start my complimentary my commentary on our earnings call with our safety and operating performance. Across the fleet of 36-rigs, our total recordable incident rate for Q1 2024 was 0.06 and the uptime for the first quarter was 99.5% and outstanding safety and operating performance. In early April, four of our nine-rigs under contract with Saudi Aramco were issued notices of suspension for up to one-year at zero rate. All four suspensions are now in effect, and the four-rigs have been mobilized to the IMI (LON:IMI) shipyard in Saudi Arabia. We are in active discussion with customers regarding contract opportunities for three of these rigs, the Shelf Drilling Victory, the Shelf Drilling Achiever and the Main Pass IV. And we anticipate that we will secure new contracts in the coming months with commence some dates before the end of 2024. We will stack the Main Pass I in Saudi and reduce cost to minimal level. We believe there will be opportunities for this rig in 2025 once the market absorbs the currently available capacity. In late April, the Trident VIII experienced an operational incident resulting in the damage to the port leg whilst the rig was under contract to Chevron (NYSE:CVX). No one was hurt and the rig has been safely mobilized to the key sight location to further assess the damage. We are in close dialogue with our customer and insurance underwriters to develop a plan to fulfill the work program with Chevron and to assess the cost to repair the Trident VIII. We will provide further updates as this situation unfolds in the coming weeks. The Shelf Drilling Barsk in Norway has concluded its contract preparation project and is awaiting final clearance for the authorities before commencing its new contract with Equinor, which we expect to take place before the end of the month. The Shelf Drilling Perseverance arrived in Singapore and is undergoing contract preparation before the commencement of its new contract with PetroVietnam. Expected date of commencement remains late July. The adjusted revenue for quarter one 2024 was $252 million; adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $80 million resulting in a margin of 32%. The sequential step down in margin was primarily the result of the Shelf Drilling Barsk being out of service for the entire quarter. We were very pleased with the placement of the 315 million of new senior secured notes at Shelf Drilling North Sea, which addresses the funding requirement discussed on our most recent calls and extends the maturities to 2028. The SDNS funding is a great outcome for the company. Greg will provide more details on our quarter one financial results and outlook for the full-year 2024. Brent crude oil prices averaged $82 a barrel during the first four- months of 2024. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the higher than expected oil production from non-OPEC, specifically onshore U.S, Guyana and Brazil, the robust global oil demand and extended OPEC production cuts have all essentially canceled one another out, resulting in a stable oil market. Oil demand is expected to continue to increase through 2024 on the back of an improving economic outlook for the United States and continued growth in energy consumption in the developing and emerging markets around the world. The global number of contracted jack-up rigs increased marginally from 406 in January 2024 to 409 in May 2024. And the market utilization held steady at 94%. The 94% utilization does not reflect the recent suspensions in Saudi Arabia. We will see some near-term pressure on day rates as the Middle East contractors look to redeploy rigs in other regions. However, we see significant incremental demand in most regions, most notably in West Africa and Southeast Asia. So we anticipate utilization will recover and remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future. The Middle East will see a reduction in activity in the short to medium term following an unprecedented increase in activity in Saudi Arabia through 2022 and 2023. The number of working rigs in Saudi Arabia is still higher than at any point prior to 2023. The current level of activity is required to sustain current productive capacity. Furthermore, we believe there will be incremental demand for offshore rigs over time as onshore fields continue to decline and offshore remains the source of incremental productive capacity. Egypt has shored up its foreign reserves with capital injection from UAE and other sources. The Rig 141 has secured a two-year contract extension in the Gulf of Suez. And we are confident that Trident 14 currently idle in the Gulf of Suez will also secure a new contract with an Egyptian customer in the coming months. There has been a number of new fixtures in Southeast Asia, driven primarily by Petronas in Malaysia and PTTEP in both Malaysia and Thailand. Available rig supply in the region is limited with further incremental demand expected to draw rigs from the Middle East. We expect ongoing and upcoming tenders to materialize into additional contracts awards in Thailand and Vietnam for programs commencing late 2024 and early 2025. The market in West Africa remains strong and rig utilization in the region is expected to remain tight for the foreseeable futures. Several new requirements have emerged in the last 6 weeks across multiple countries with start dates before the end of 2024. We are in advanced discussions with a number of international and indigenous customers in the region for extensions as well as new contracts at attractive day rates. In India, there are a number of tenders under negotiation. onGC is expected to conclude commercial negotiation in the coming weeks with bidders under four-rig tender. All four-rigs are incumbent rigs. Cairn have recently issued a tender for two-rigs with targeted commencement in quarter four 2024. Other indigenous Indian companies are, for relatively short-term programs with start dates in H1 2025. The North Sea market has strengthened significantly. In the UK sector, the Shelf Green Fortress secured a 400-day contract expected to commence in quarter three in direct continuation with its current contract. We are also in advanced discussions regarding follow on work with the Shelf Drilling winner beyond its current contract end date in March 2025. In Norway, the Shelf Drilling Barsk secured a two well firm contract with three well optional extensions with Equinor at the Gundren field as well as first two well options exercised on Sleipner Vest field, all ahead of contract commencement. We see this as a high degree of trust Equinor has placed in Shelf Drilling’s operational capabilities. And we are pleased to secure additional firm term that will keep the rig busy beyond 2025. As of the 31 March 2024, our contract backlog was 2.2 billion across 35-rigs with a weighted average day rate of $84,000 per day and a market utilization of 97%. In closing, the suspension of our four-rigs in Saudi Arabia will have a short term impact on the company’s results. And we have revised our 2024 financial guidance to that effect. However, we are confident that we will secure attractive opportunities for several of these rigs in the near-term and we anticipate start dates before the end of 2024. We are very encouraged by our discussions thus far with potential customers. We view this as an opportunity to strengthen our footprints in other core markets by fixing contracts at more favorable day rates. Our recent contracts award in the North Sea and debt refinancing at SDNS have significantly improved the outlook for this part of the business. As such, we anticipate that SDNS will contribute a meaningful amount of earnings growth and cash generation as we move into the second half of 2024. I would like to thank our investors for their interest in the company. And as always, at Shelf Drilling despite our near-term uncertainties, we are committed to delivering safe and best-in-class operations to our customers. I will now hand it over to Greg for his remarks.
Greg O’Brien: Thanks, David. As a reminder, our earnings release yesterday also included standalone financial reports for Shelf Drilling North Sea. We would encourage you all to review the results presentation on our website as this includes additional metrics for both Shelf Drilling and SDNS. Reported revenue for Q1 2024 of $255 million included three million for mobilization started three million for amortization of intangible liability. We will continue to focus on adjusted revenue, which excludes the impact of this non-cash item. Adjusted revenue for Q1 of $252 million included $232 million of day rate revenue, $12 million of mobilization and bonus revenue and $8 million of recharges and other revenue. Adjusted revenue for Q1 increased by $13 million or 5% relative to Q4 2023. The 31-rig fleet at the parent company drove substantially all of this growth with increased revenues in both Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. In Saudi Arabia, there was a sequential reduction in planned out of service days primarily for the Main Pass IV, which was out of service most of Q4. In Nigeria, the Adriatic I and Shelf Drilling Mentor commenced new contracts during October and were in operation for all of Q1, 2024. Revenue at Shelf Drilling North Sea of $28 million was substantially in line with the prior quarter. Effective utilization for the quarter increased to 86% from 85% in Q4. Utilization at the parent company was 91%, up from 87% in Q4 due to the improvement in Nigeria and Saudi. Effective utilization for the five-rig fleet at SDNS was 59% in Q1 as both the Shelf Drilling Barsk and Shelf Drilling Perseverance were preparing for new contracts for the entire quarter. Average day rate was $82,000 per day in Q1, up from $80,000 in Q4, mainly driven by higher rates in West Africa and Egypt. Operating and maintenance expenses of $150 million in Q1 increased from $135 million in Q4, partially due to higher maintenance costs for certain rigs in India and Saudi Arabia and higher expenses for fleet spares. At the SDNS level, operating expenses increased sequentially to 35 million in Q1 from 26 million in Q4, due entirely to higher costs for the Shelf Drilling Barsk in Norway, which was previously under a bareboat charter agreement that finished in Q4 2023. G&A expenses of 18 million in Q1 increased from 14 million in Q4 due partly to a net increase in provision for credit losses. Adjusted EBITDA was 80 million in Q1, representing a margin of 32% compared to 88 million and a margin of 37% in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was negative 11 million for SDNS in Q1 and 91 million from the rest of the business. Income tax expense was $9 million in Q1 representing 4% of revenues, up from $6 million in Q4. Net interest expense of 36 million for the quarter was $29 million lower than Q4, mainly due to $28 million of onetime expenses associated with our debt refinancing transaction that we completed in October. Other net expense increased to $4 million in Q1 from $2 million in Q4, resulting from foreign currency exchange losses. Non-cash depreciation and amortization expenses totaled 41 million in Q1, slightly up from 40 million in Q4 and the quarterly net income attributable to controlling interest was $4 million. Capital expenditures and deferred costs totaled 49 million in Q1, including 13 million at Shelf Drilling North Sea. Spending at SDNS was primarily concentrated on contract preparation expenditures for the Shelf Drilling Perseverance ahead of its new contract expected to commence in Vietnam in July as well as higher spending for the shelter in Maersk in Norway in preparation of its new contract expected to commence in the coming weeks. As a parent company, we completed a major shipyard project on the Trident II ahead of its new three-year contract with onGC that started in India in March. Our consolidated cash balance as of March 31 was $102 million marginally up from $98 million at the end of December. Cash at the parent company increased from 70 million to 88 million during Q1, primarily due to a sequential decrease in capital spending and a reduction in debt service payments. Cash at SDNS declined from 28 million in December to 14 million at the end of March, mainly due to lower sequential quarterly EBITDA and an increase in CapEx. As a result of the recent announcement of the suspension of four of our rigs in Saudi Arabia, we have revised our financial guidance for full-year 2024. Fully consolidated adjusted EBITDA is now estimated between $330 million and $375 million compared to our initial guidance earlier this year between $375 million and $420 million. At the SDNS level, we now anticipate EBITDA between $30 million and $35 million an increase of $5 million from our original guidance. This includes an expectation for the first half of 2024 in the range of negative $15 million and a significantly better and more normalized level of EBITDA north of $90 million on an annualized basis in the second half of the year once all five-rigs are in operation. This implies a level for the rest of the business in 2024 of $300 million at the low end and $340 million at the upper end, representing a reduction of approximately $50 million from our initial guidance range. We anticipate EBITDA will sequentially decline in Q2 and Q3 due to the suspensions in Saudi. As David mentioned, we expect to secure new contracts for three of these four-rigs in the coming months with start dates around the end of the year. As a result of this, as well as ongoing efforts to reduce operating costs, we expect EBITDA to return to a level in line with or better than Q1 2024 by the fourth quarter of this year. Our total capital spending guidance in 2024 is unchanged from earlier this year estimated between $145 million and $170 million. This includes $40 million to $45 million at SDNS primarily due to the ongoing project for the Shelf Drilling Perseverance as well as contract preparation spending for the Shelf Drilling Barsk and the planned investment in fleet spares discussed on our last call. Across the rest of the business, we maintained our guidance of approximately $115 million. This now includes $15 million to $20 million of assumed mobilization and contract preparation costs for the suspended rigs in Saudi Arabia that we are actively marketing for opportunities in other areas. As an offset, we have canceled a planned out of service project for the Main Pass I and identified other reductions across the fleet. The recent debt placement at SDNS was a very positive step for Shelf Drilling. The issuance of $315 million senior secured notes during late 2028 is on track to be completed next week. In conjunction with the issuance we will fully redeem the existing notes due in 2025 and repay the short-term loan that was provided by the parent company in late April. This transaction fully addresses the near-term funding need at SDNS and ensures we have strong liquidity for the foreseeable future. Through the series of steps taken over the past nine-months, we have transformed the balance sheet of the company. At closing of the SDNS notes issuance, we have over $100 million of cash, our $150 mm revolving credit facility is undrawn, and we have extended all maturities to late 2028 and 2029. We remain committed to further deleveraging our balance sheet through annual debt repayments and expect to generate significant free cash flow in 2025 and beyond. The suspensions in Saudi Arabia will create some short-term uncertainty, but we believe the long term outlook for the jack-up market remains extremely robust. Our leading position across multiple key regions positions us well to capture opportunities in these other markets in the near-term. We would now like to open the call for questions.
接线员:[接线员说明]现在我们来回答第一个问题,这个问题是克拉克森证券公司的弗雷德里克·斯坦提的。
Fredrik steene:我想谈谈你所说的关于重新部署三个钻机的高度信心的指导,除了主要的通行证,一个在年底。但我认为在你的重点中,你谈论的是,这与指导有关,它包括预期在第四季度重新部署两个暂停的钻井平台。所以我想知道你们该如何和解。你谈到了三个钻井平台和两个钻井平台,以及第四季度将覆盖多少,等等。任何颜色都非常有用。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:听着,答案是我们现在没有完美的能见度。我们还没有获得这三个钻井平台的合同。我们正在积极地讨论这三个问题和多种机会,我认为我们在准备好的发言中说过,我们希望在相对较短的时间内就这三个问题开展工作。但在执行工作和钻机实际启动之间通常会有一段时间或滞后。因为我认为,对于这三个国家,我们希望他们在中东以外的地方工作,这需要一些时间。所以我认为我们希望在第四季度的某个时候有两个钻井平台可以工作,可能是第四季度的早期。有没有可能在那之前开工?我认为这是可能的。所以,是的,基本情况假设是我们很快就能找到所有三个钻机的工作。我们希望在今年年底之前,有两个钻井平台能够贡献利润,预计两个月或更长时间,然后第三个钻井平台可能在2025年初开始。还有比这更好的吗?还能再糟一点吗?是的,这也是可能的。部分原因是我们对今年的指引仍然有相对较宽的范围。这就是我们通常的思考方式。
弗雷德里克·斯坦:考虑到这一点,当我们考虑指导意见时,特别是Shelf钻井有限公司,我认为如果你在这里做一下数学计算,你最终的价格在303.50之间,抱歉,根据你今天提供的价格,是303.40。你能说明一下,为了达到这个范围的低端或高端,需要什么,不需要什么吗?
格雷格·奥布莱恩:当然。是的。我们第一季度的EBITDA是91。我们在报告的评论中给出了方向性指导,我们预计第二季度和第三季度的收入会减少15%。这并不一定意味着两个季度的水平完全相同,但很明显,到今年年中,这些钻井平台上的闲置时间至少会增加。我们花了很多时间试图找到降低成本的方法。主要通过的是一个例子,我们将努力降低钻井平台的成本。我们第一季度的运营成本为115或略低于115,你可能不会在第二季度看到巨大的差异。但到今年下半年,我们希望这个数字会更低,假设是500万到1000万,一个季度低于这个水平是一个合理的假设。是的,我们将其中两个钻井平台重新投入使用,从而在下半年产生收入的预期是,抱歉,是在第四季度,而不是下半年,这也包含在假设中。我们仍有一些开放产能的地方是埃及的一个钻井平台,目前处于闲置状态。David提到,我们希望在未来几个月内将钻井平台重新投入使用。因此,在第三季度的某个时候,我们认为我们可以让钻井平台重新投入使用,这将是我们的目标,但这仍然没有完成。三叉戟VIII上的事件也有一些不确定性。我认为我们假设至少有几个月的时间该钻井平台无法工作,但显然这对该资产来说还为时过早,但我们也试图将其纳入范围。因此,我认为关键的摇摆因素是,我们在沙特其他地方销售的三台钻井平台何时会发生什么,以及我们在其他市场的几台钻井平台在今年剩余时间内仍未完全签约。
弗雷德里克·斯特恩:但看起来,第二季度并不一定是一成不变的,但在这个范围内的波动因素将在下半年和其他方面受到严重影响,而在第四季度更是如此。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:没错。我的意思是,一般情况下都是这样。是Q2的一半。我们对本季度有良好的预期。不,我认为那是对的。
弗雷德里克·斯特恩:最后一个问题,我要把话题转到印度。据多个消息来源报道,onGC取消了高压高温招标。但我认为对你们来说,这只与波罗的海有潜在的关系,而杰克天使和三叉戟12可能会在你提到的标准上得到一些东西,这将在接下来的几个月里得出结论,至少是商业讨论。那么你对取消招标有什么评论吗?你赢得另外两个钻井平台合同的能力,以及onGC在沙特阿美暂停招标后的表现,因为我个人认为,取消去年8月发布的招标可能是为了获得更多的竞标机会,因为现在有更多的钻井平台可能这样做?所以,这里的任何颜色都是有用的。
大卫·马伦:是的,我要了。看,刚开始,就取消了高压,高温的招标。所以,这就是真正发生的事情L1投标人选择不延长他的合同,超过了基本到期的期限。onGC与L2谈判也没有法律依据。所以投标要求的工作方式是他们必须与L1谈判。我相信,市场也相信,他们做空了这些高压、高温钻机。他们是否需要这三者还有待观察。但我相信他们会在短期内提出一到两个高温高压钻井平台的投标。关于正在进行的四钻机招标,我相信我们得到的所有信息,这些都是现有的钻机。它们不是增量活动。onGC为他们制定了一个坚定的计划。所以,他们希望招标能够进行。但你的观察是正确的。鉴于沙特阿美的停产,onGC认为市场应该会出现一些回调。他们将试图通过谈判将税率从原来的水平降下来。如果你还记得的话,这些比率在90年代中期左右取决于基于质量的系统得分。所以我们期待看到一些谈判。这个我就不多说了。这是一个持续的过程。但我相当有信心,我们将在招标中承包两个钻井平台。
接线员:现在我们来回答下一个问题。下一个问题来自William Blair的Alexandra Symeonidi。
Alexandra Symeonidi:我有三个问题。如果可能的话,我会一个一个地拿。所以在高岛五号,合同将于2025年5月到期。你能给我们一些指导意见吗?你是否相信沙特阿美会重新启动这项计划,或者考虑到我们对它的关注,我们希望它也能被动员起来?
大卫·马伦:《高岛5》有一些独特的功能,我相信我们会续签的。因此,在沙特阿美的钻井队伍中,很少有钻井平台可以同时作业,这使得他们可以在井口暴露的平台上工作,而不需要关闭平台。因此,这对阿美公司产生了相当大的影响。我相信整个舰队中只有三个钻井平台具有这种能力,高岛V就是其中之一。所以,是的,我相信这个钻井平台将被延长,因为它对沙特阿美来说是一个非常重要的战略资产。
Alexandra Symeonidi:你提到该地区的日费率存在压力。你能给我们一个如何量化的感觉吗,你认为现在低了多少?
马伦:对不起,你是在说石油天然气公司吗?
Alexandra Symeonidi:对不起,你能再说一遍吗?对不起,这里有很多背景杂音。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:你刚刚问了一些关于日租金的问题?
Alexandra Symeonidi:是的。让我重复一下我的问题。你提到该地区的日费率有压力。所以我想知道你是否能给我们一个感觉,你认为目前这些利率降低了多少?
大卫·马伦:是的。听着,这是一场现场谈判。因此,我们不会对日费率发表评论,甚至我们认为它们会走向何方。但是,我不认为这将对日费率产生重大影响。从市场的基本面来看,情况仍然非常好。我的意思是,正如我在讲话中提到的,我们在世界各地看到了很多增量活动。我们看到西非的活动在增加。为了量化,安哥拉正在从一个钻井平台发展到三个钻井平台。尼日利亚应该从5个减到7个。我们预计赤道板块地区将至少再增加两个钻井平台。这是一个相当可观的增长。所有这些增长都将在现在到年底之间发生。也许其中一些将悄悄延续到2025年初。在东南亚,情况也非常相似。所以我们不一定能理解不同的承包商会有什么反应。但如果有一定程度的纪律,日汇率应该不会变动太大。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:我认为在未来三到六个月,我们可能会看到更广泛的数据点。我们已经看到了一些。就像你在东南亚,西非,甚至中东的高端自升式市场。我觉得我们取得了相当不错的进展,每天的下载量达到了15万,在某些情况下甚至更高。我们已经看到了一些新的装置在低100。这并不意味着这里的一切都会重置。我们只是认为,在接下来的几个月里,他们会有更广泛的印刷品。你能看到110到130或140之间的合约吗?我认为这是可能的。但这种能力越早被吸收和重新部署越好。然后你又回到了一个非常紧张的市场。因此,我们认为这将更多是一个短期问题,而不是利率环境的结构性长期变化。
Alexandra Symeonidi:我接下来的问题是关于你提到的一些钻机在重新部署方面比其他钻机进展更快。你希望在该地区或其他地方重新部署他们吗?
Greg O 'Brien:我想我说过,这三个平台的基本情况都在中东以外。这些都还没有完成,但大卫提到,我们在东南亚、印度和西非都看到了机会。所以我们可以假设这是我们的三个主要目标区域,但仍然很不稳定。但我们认为这三个平台都有很好的机会,但如果我们在短期内找到新工作,中东地区可能就没有机会了。
Alexandra Symeonidi:我可以问一下,你提到动员目标了吗?大概你期望他们如何得到这些东西将被部署到其他地方?
大卫·马伦:是的,有。我的意思是,它取决于你把它移动了多远,它取决于-。
Alexandra Symeonidi:是的,更像是如果你有一个可以分享的数字。
大卫·马伦:如果是短途航班,运输成本大约是300万美元,如果是长途航班,大概是500万美元。剩下的是非常可变的取决于地理位置的变化和客户的变化所要求的合同准备水平。
接线员:现在我们来回答下一个问题。下一个问题来自高盛的卡尔·布伦登。
卡尔·布伦登:我想问一个关于资本支出和息税折旧摊销前利润指导范围的问题。这些费用包括所有预期的动员费用吗?我意识到可能会有一些变化。或者,你是否也会为其中一些在2025年出现留下一些空间?
格雷格·奥布莱恩:是的。我的意思是,我说过15到20是嵌入在制导范围的中点。对于母公司来说,我认为如果我们在年底前移动所有三个钻井平台,这一切都将完成。我们不会小于这个范围。我们会飞得更高吗?可能不会。与中东等地相比,我们瞄准的地方往往对合同准备的要求较低。所以我认为这是一个不错的数字。在2025年初可能会有一些阻力成本,但希望这是一个有用的背景。
卡尔·布伦登:然后当你讨论了三次重新部署,我听到一些不确定的最终目的地的确切时间。但是,我们是否应该在离开这里的时候,认为你相当有信心,从这里会有三个,而不是两个,有足够的选择,让你确保三个是有效的?
大卫·马伦:是的。听着,我觉得在这个时候,我们很有信心为三辆钻机找到一个家。无论我们是否能在2024年完成所有这些任务,也许我们会寻找合适的机会,而不是追逐时间表。但我们确实看到了很好的机会,讨论进展顺利。是的,我的意思是,在我的脑海里,这就是我的基本情况。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:没错。我认为指导中关于两钻机的细微差别更多是关于开始日期,而不是关于找到好机会的信心。所以我认为这是一种细微差别。
接线员:[接线员说明]现在我们来回答下一个问题。这个问题来自DNB的马丁·卡尔森。
马丁·卡尔森:我有一个关于三叉戟VIII的问题。您能否谈谈该事件的潜在结果,包括用船队中的其他设备替换钻井平台的可能性?第二,你能提醒我们一下你的保险单吗,包括在这种情况下的免赔额是如何起作用的?
大卫·马伦:是的,马丁,我的意思是,现在还为时尚早。事件刚刚发生,但如果它不是一个系列事件,我们不会报告它。所以有可能这是一次毁灭性的损失。如果是这样的话,钻井平台的保险价值是5000万美元。但我们正在评估形势。在这个时间点上,我们真的无法给出一个可能或并非不可能的结果。正如Greg所提到的,如果钻井平台要重新投入使用,那么维修钻井平台将需要很长一段时间。但我们正在考虑如何完成目前与雪佛龙的工作计划。老实说,这是我们的首要任务。我认为我们在这方面取得了很好的进展。但这是最重要的。钻井平台的损坏将使钻井平台在很长一段时间内无法使用,并可能导致破坏性损失。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:然后是钻机,合同还有四个月就到期了。显然,这是我们想要填补的一段时间。这对我们的客户很重要。我们确实认为在这之外还有潜在的工作。所以这显然是我们的首要任务。我们的目标是找到最佳的解决方案,当然,也要考虑针对特定钻井平台的正确方案。但是,是的,如果这是大卫提到的重大损害,这类事故将被覆盖。相对于盈利能力而言,标准自升式平台在市场上的价值往往较低。我们确保它们的价格在我们认为合理的范围内,是的,标准机队的价格通常在4000万到5000万美元之间。但是我认为,在未来几周,或者一个月到六周的时间里,我们会更好地处理目前的局势。我们当然会在发布后提供更多的更新。
Martin Karlsen:关于合同的后续问题是它是与雪佛龙签订的,如果这个钻井平台不能自行恢复工作,它对雪佛龙是否有任何责任来完成这个项目?
马伦:不,听着,我们有信心完成这个计划。而且没有真正的责任。但我们并没有看到这一点。我们有信心能够完成这个计划。
接线员:现在我们来回答下一个问题。它来自美国银行的格雷格·布罗迪。
格雷格·布罗迪:有一个问题,关于沙特阿美公司的心态,或者沙特的心态,暂停12个月,你能谈谈你认为他们继续这样做的风险是什么吗?我知道有一种观点认为他们正在增长,所以他们会再次回来。帮助我们思考一下他们的决策以及他们可能传达给你的信息。我想你说了一些关于钻机的事,你为什么把它留在那里?然后可能会谈论他们已经谈论过的天然气机会以及你的钻机如何适应这个机会?
格雷格·奥布莱恩:让我先利用这个机会,因为我看到你只是想回答。因此,天然气的真正机会在陆上,而不是海上。所以沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司在海上,抱歉,是在陆上开采非常规天然气,他们在那里寻找大部分的天然气产量。我想今天,当时有90台钻机,其中可能有4台在天然气项目上工作。可能会有增加到5的可能性,但这不会,这不会改变指针。所以天然气主要在陆上。
大卫·马伦:对不起,提醒我一下你问题的第二部分。听着,阿美公司传达这一信息的方式是,他们希望暂停钻井平台,以便承包商能够将钻井平台留在王国。这并不一定意味着这些钻井平台将在12个月后恢复工作。他们认为这是一个更久远的衰退。换句话说,我不认为一年后他们会回到90台钻机。我认为他们中的一些人可能会回来,这就是为什么我们正在考虑将三个钻井平台转移出去。一旦我们把钻机搬出去,我们就会从暂停到终止,因为这是唯一合理的办法。阿美公司为所有人提供了灵活性,他们可以暂停钻井平台,这样你就可以把钻井平台留在沙特。然后你可以选择在那之后的任何时候终止工作,并找到替代工作。因此,我在讲话中确实提到,我相信随着时间的推移,沙特阿拉伯的海上活动将继续增加。让我们记住,他们有大约70到75个钻井平台。除了2023年的短暂时间外,这是他们有史以来的最高活动水平。但随着时间的推移,这一数字将会增加,因为海上仍是增加石油产量的唯一来源。但我不认为12个月后会回到90台。所以暂停期只是作为一个指导。他们可能会在12个月后恢复一小部分钻井平台,但这将是一小部分钻井平台,而不是全部22台钻井平台,无论他们暂停的数量是多少。
格雷格·布罗迪:关于这个问题还有一个后续问题。所以你留下的唯一一个平台是,我猜你留下了选择的余地。我想一年后你会决定如果你在这个王国看不到机会你会怎么做。这样说公平吗?
大卫·马伦:嗯,甚至可能更少。我们现在要做的就是看看我们面前的情况,我们非常有信心在沙特阿拉伯以外重新部署三个钻井平台。我们看到了他们的机会。所以我们的置信度很好。要把所有四个钻井平台都搬走,我只是觉得一个钻井平台太多了。我想我在评论中提到过,在2025年,2025年初,我们将重新评估Main Pass I的情况,并决定我们是否要在那个时候把它取出来,重新部署其他三个钻井平台。所以这是一个寻找的问题,如果我们找到一个机会,我们会把它拿出来,重新部署它。我们有期权价值,可以把它留在王国。
格雷格·奥布莱恩:我的意思是,我认为另一个关键变量显然是利率。我们能给这四个钻机都找个活干吗?我们可以,但在经历了多年的定价挑战之后,过去两年的费率环境终于有了很好的进展。我认为,平衡是试图保持利用率在一个良好的位置,并保持长期的定价势头,就像几个月前一样。所以这也是平衡的一部分。试图降低今年的成本,这对我们今年有真正的影响,无论如何不要急于找工作。
格雷格·布罗迪:这是你被问到的其他钻井平台,其他明年到期的钻井平台不在暂停范围内。我认为你对重新收缩这些感觉很好或者你强调的任何一个都很独特。但我觉得还有一个。对吗?
格雷格·奥布莱恩:这是我们唯一一个在2025年到期的钻井平台。我们还有另外两个,但那是我们在其他地方积极推广的四个被暂停的钻机的一部分。所以之前和成功者。我的意思是大卫谈到了高岛v,它没有被暂停是有原因的。我们认为它特别适合这个市场。我们现在没有进行积极的对话,但很明显,沙特阿美一直在忙着完成这些暂停,让钻井平台不再起火。但是,是的,我们感觉很好。我们认为这些讨论应该在今年晚些时候开始。但是,是的,我感觉很好。这是一项战略性的长期资产。
格雷格·布罗迪:还有一个关于资产负债表的澄清问题。我注意到你把定期贷款的到期日提前了,这看起来很谨慎。你还在左轮手枪上抽了一小笔。这只是在这段时间内的桥梁吗?或者你认为你有可能需要额外的资金或者只是一个修正案或类似的东西?
格雷格·奥布莱恩:不。所以RCF,我想说的是RCF抽取和定期贷款延期都是为了给SDNS提供资金,然后我们在4月的前两周决定我们认为债券的再融资是很有意义的。所以,如果我们改变了步骤的顺序,说实话,我们可能不会延长定期贷款。但那是在3月底完成的。我们认为这很有价值。这是我们拥有的成本最低的融资方式。我们随时都可以还清。如果没有,我们会在年底还清。毕竟,RCF是为了促进短期贷款进入SDNS,这些贷款将得到偿还,RCF将在下周SDNS债券结束时偿还。如果我们低于我们今年的指导范围的低端,我们是否可以在年底略微减少RCF ?这是可能的。但现在我们对流动性状况感觉非常好,尤其是在完成SDNS再融资之后。
格雷格·布罗迪:你不认为你需要对契约进行修改吗?
格雷格·奥布莱恩:不。我们必须把信贷集团的长期资产管理规模控制在3亿美元以下的合理水平,这样才有可能实现,我们不认为这是一种风险。
接线员:现在我们回答下一个问题。这个问题来自于[Floris Dextra] (Ph值)[难以辨认]这一行。
不愿透露姓名的分析师:我想很快地谈谈你提到的三个钻井平台的重新部署预期。你可以看到来自东南亚、西非和印度的需求。你是期望每个地区都有一个人去,还是你可以去一个地区?你能提供更多的透明度吗?
大卫·马伦:听着,我想说的是,这是一个合理的可能性,但我们不会只把我们的帽子挂在那上面。我们看到的机会比我们拥有的钻机要多,这是一件好事,因为我们不打算赢得所有的钻机,我们基本上会把它当作我们的战略目标。所以我几乎可以肯定地说,我们将把一个或两个钻井平台转移到尼日利亚。我们在东南亚和印度都看到了很好的机会。
身份不明的分析师:那么就竞争而言,你是否看到了更多的竞争,因为我认为,沙特目前还没有15或16个其他钻井平台,可能也在试图在这些领域竞争,还是因为钻井平台的规格,你非常有信心能够赢得这些合同?
大卫·马伦:我的意思是,在某些地区的经验让我们与众不同。所以当你看到像尼日利亚这样的地方,这是一个非常具有挑战性的地方。我们看到这个地区的活动在增加。我只是举个例子。运营商更倾向于选择那些在这方面有良好记录和经验的公司。所以,是的,将会有竞争。但是,从我们目前所处的位置来看,我们非常有信心,我们认为我们将能够以合理的日费率水平签订合同,这才是重要的。所以,是的,我们对我们的地位很有信心。我不能确切地告诉你,这些钻井平台会去哪些地区,但我很有信心,我们会有一两个平台去西非。
身份不明的分析师:我这边还有一个问题。我知道你不能说得太具体,但当我想到被暂停的四座钻井平台,以及他们与阿美公司的价格,我猜,与三个相比,你可能会或你期望以更高的价格获得新合同。如果我考虑到2025年,你是否有三个钻井平台的价格上涨,你希望重新签订合同,以弥补你在第四个钻井平台上的损失?
大卫?马伦:我的意思是,随着时间的推移,如果你能获得更好的日利率,你就能恢复更健康的利润率。但想象一下,你将弥补2024年和2025年的全部缺口,我认为这有点激进。
接线员:现在我们来回答今天的最后一个问题。它来自Clarksons公司的Fredrik Stene。
Fredrik steene:在沙特阿美和他们未来的计划的背景下,你认为他们是否有可能在他们已经做过的事情之上进行更多的暂停?他们似乎在一轮中就做到了,但你永远不知道他们是谁。所以我只是想知道你是否有任何额外的颜色,或者你是否觉得这就是它,现在市场只需要吸收那些22钻机?
马伦:我认为他们已经做了他们该做的,仅此而已。但市场状况可能发生变化。如果市场条件发生变化,他们还能做得更多吗?嗯,可能。但我认为假设市场,更广泛的市场,我说的可能更多的是石油市场,但假设石油市场没有发生大的变化,我认为他们已经削减了他们预期的削减幅度。所以我认为我的计划,我的基本计划是不会有进一步的暂停。
大卫·马伦:谢谢,接线员。我想应该是这样。我要感谢所有参加电话会议的人,并期待在下次财报电话会议上进行讨论,届时我们将更清楚地了解暂停的钻井平台。希望我们会谈到他们正在承担的合同。非常感谢大家。
接线员:今天的会议到此结束。感谢大家的参与。你们现在可以断开连接了。祝你过得愉快。
本文是在人工智能的支持下生成的,并由编辑审阅。欲了解更多信息,请参阅我们的T&C。
点击分享到









